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"Average return" is not what you get: order matters

A client who trusts averages needs one table. Show that the same returns, in a different order, end far apart when money comes out.

Do it in Genius

All cases your client Calculators Simulator Market model: Worst 20 years Add Scenario

Practice Client, 3 Nov 2026: Worst 20 years, the market paid $66,966 and ran out at 71. Fixed Interest paid $267,631, Index-Linked Growth $329,502.

Rates change every day, so yours will differ.

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In the app: CRM → All cases

The Simulator with four scenarios for the Practice Client: the market path ends at 71, and the three annuity accounts at 80, 81 and 84. (opens full size in a new tab)
  1. 1.

    A 10% loss needs an 11% gain to recover. A 20% loss needs 25%, 30% needs 43%, 40% needs 67%, 50% needs 100%.

  2. 2.

    Two retirees start with $1,000,000 and take $60,000 at the start of each year. Same six returns, opposite order.

    Returns in order: -20%, -10%, +5%, +10%, +15%, +20%. The average is about 3.3%.

  3. 3.

    Bad years first: about $651,000 is left after six years. Good years first: about $835,000. Same average, about $184,000 apart.

    Why: the $60,000 comes out each year. With no withdrawals, the order changes nothing.

  4. 4.

    In Simulator, set Market model to Worst 20 years. Add Scenario: Fixed Interest, then Index-Linked Growth. Each time, click Simulate on your pick.

    Client asks: "Fixed shows 6.2%. Why an index?" Show $267,631 beside $329,502 as a past replay, not a forecast. Index interest can be 0% in a bad year.

You're done when you can show why the same average can end in two very different places.
Watch out: Arithmetic, not a forecast. Never say which years are coming, and give no advice on stocks or funds. Worst 20 years is the worst stretch on record, not the usual one: say so. Index-Linked Growth reads as a fixed index annuity: its menu text promises market-based returns without the risk of losing money. A registered index-linked annuity (RILA) can lose money, is a security and needs a securities license: refer it. The Simulator holds 6.2% after the 7-year term, though no renewal rate is known. For an inflation worry, set Expected inflation (4.0%): the goal rises each year, a level income does not.
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